Johns post below has struck a cord with me. We seem to be thinking the same thing about this whole GFC, as it is now called - Global Financial Crisis - for those who may have been living in Outer Mongolia for the last few months.
A number of banks were trying to make more profit than was sensible on the back of rising house prices. Along come the stock market speculators to drive the oil price through the roof and the battlers in the 'mortgage belts' around the world suddenly find they are being squeezed by a rapid rise in prices.
In the US, where a lot of 'no doc' loans where written up to people who couldn't rub two coins together, borrowers simply started walking away from their home loans. The banks took possession of the vacant houses and put them on the market to recoup the outstanding loans.
As the number of defaulters rose an oversupply was created, house prices started to fall, and this snowballed along to a point where there were thousands of homes being repossessed very week, driving prices even lower.
Unlike Australia, whilst the defaulters try to restart their lives as best they can, the banks in the US wear any losses made in this situation, a their losses were growing exponentially.
As the number of unsold houses on the market grew, the banks found they were unable to repay the loans they took out to finance the housing loans. So, they started going belly up. And as these loans were taken out via a web of financial institutions around the globe, it has had repercussions just about everywhere.
To top it off, the media has been having a field day! They have been dredging the bottom of pools for any commentator who at some time in the last ten years has been predicting just such an occurrence and giving them air time. Nearly every night there has been someone sprouting about recessions and depressions, even predicting the worst in history.
Of course this type of rabid publicity has a negative effect on peoples attitudes out in the market place. But, I find it all a bit of a storm in a tea cup at the moment. I don't know of anyone doing it any tougher,or losing their job, let alone their house. I don't know anyone who has had to pull their kids out of private school, or stop going out for dinner, buying lattes or going to a concert. I know we are somewhat isolated from it here in good ol' Oz, mainly due to good banking regulation, so I may be a bit too optimistic, but I still can't help but feel that we will ride this out faster than a lot of the doomsayers are telling us.
The price of oil has crashed back to a reasonable level for the time being, the Oz dollar is back at a level where our exports are better placed, and unemployment is still low at around five percent.
All in all, I reckon we will see this out reasonably well. Lets hope I'm right - but hey, I have been wrong before!!
How did that Monty Python song go again? "Always look on the bright side of life,....."
JP